Bitcoin Market Volatility Analysis Using Grand Canonical Minority Game
In this paper we propose to use the Grand Canonical Minority Game (GCMG, a highly simplified financial market model) as a model of bitcoin market to show how the lack of an income for “miners”, similar to yield earned by bond holders, could be a structural reason for high volatility of bitcoin price in a reference currency. Coherently with present analysis, the introduction of future contracts on bitcoin would have the effect of reducing the overall market volatility.
Arthur, B.W. “Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality: The El Farol problem.” American Economic Review 84 406 (1994).
Black, F.S. “Noise” The Journal of Finance XLI 3 (1986). 6 Moro, E. “The Minority Game: an introductory guide.” http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0402651v1.pdf (2004).
Chakraborti, A., Challet, D., Chatterjee, A., Marsili, M., Zhang, Y.-C., Chakrabarti, B.K. “Statistical mechanics of competitive resource allocation using agent-based models.” Physics Reports 552 1-25 (2015).
Challet, D. “Minority mechanisms in models of agents learning collectively a resource level” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 344.1 24-29 (2004).
Challet, D., Marsili, M. “Critically and finite size effects in a simple realistic model of stock market.” http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0210549.pdf (2002).
Challet, D., Marsili, M., Zhang, Y.-C. “Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 294.3 514-524 (2001).
Nakamoto, S. “Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system.” http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf (1994).
Copyright (c) 2016 Matteo Ortisi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- The Author retains copyright in the Work, where the term “Work” shall include all digital objects that may result in subsequent electronic publication or distribution.
- Upon acceptance of the Work, the author shall grant to the Publisher the right of first publication of the Work.
- The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License or its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
- Attribution—other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
- The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a prepublication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work. Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
- Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
- The Author represents and warrants that:
- the Work is the Author’s original work;
- the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
- the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
- the Work has not previously been published;
- the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
- the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
- The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 6 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.
- The Author agrees to digitally sign the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work.
Revised 7/16/2018. Revision Description: Removed outdated link.